At Luxor, we built an internal model to estimate what the hashprice (reward per TH) is going to be after the halving. As we discovered in this article, Hashprice is 4 times more volatile than BTC/USD price, so take any predictions with a grain of salt.
We compared all Bitmain and Whatsminer ASIC available. Using our Hashprice predictions and a 5 cents USD per kWh all-in rate these were our findings:
- Bitmain remains the king. We expect to see between 11 to 12 months ROI for their S17+, S19 and S19 Pro.
- The most efficient miner, the S19 Pro, with 30 Watts per TH/s is not the miner with the shortest payback period. The S17 with 40W per TH/s is the miner with the shortest payback period due to its great value at 17.5 USD per TH/s.
- WhatsMiner’s are overpriced across their entire family of miners. Post-halving we expect to see over 13 months ROI for their M20S family and over 18 months ROI for their M30S++ miner.
- At 5 cents USD per kWh all-in, we estimate that S9s are going to be unprofitable. However, if you manage to get a 3 cents USD per kWh all-in rate these miners will become profitable to run. On top of that, these ASICs will have the shortest payback period in the 4 to 5 month range.
- Many farms are experiencing poor quality and high failure rates with the latest Bitmain batches. Under this scenario, Whatsminers might become a better choice since you would be able to run them for longer.
- We might see price-cuts from manufacturers after the halving. Consider that within your purchase decision.
What are your thoughts on hardware?
You can find us over at Discord.