Best SHA-256 ASIC Miner After the Halving?

At Luxor, we built an internal model to estimate what the hashprice (reward per TH) is going to be after the halving. As we discovered in this article, Hashprice is 4 times more volatile than BTC/USD price, so take any predictions with a grain of salt.

We compared all Bitmain and Whatsminer ASIC available. Using our Hashprice predictions and a 5 cents USD per kWh all-in rate these were our findings:

  • Bitmain remains the king. We expect to see between 11 to 12 months ROI for their S17+, S19 and S19 Pro.
  • The most efficient miner, the S19 Pro, with 30 Watts per TH/s is not the miner with the shortest payback period. The S17 with 40W per TH/s is the miner with the shortest payback period due to its great value at 17.5 USD per TH/s.
  • WhatsMiner’s are overpriced across their entire family of miners. Post-halving we expect to see over 13 months ROI for their M20S family and over 18 months ROI for their M30S++ miner.
  • At 5 cents USD per kWh all-in, we estimate that S9s are going to be unprofitable. However, if you manage to get a 3 cents USD per kWh all-in rate these miners will become profitable to run. On top of that, these ASICs will have the shortest payback period in the 4 to 5 month range.
  • Many farms are experiencing poor quality and high failure rates with the latest Bitmain batches. Under this scenario, Whatsminers might become a better choice since you would be able to run them for longer.
  • We might see price-cuts from manufacturers after the halving. Consider that within your purchase decision.

What are your thoughts on hardware?

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Thanks for sharing this information here with us!

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