What I’m about to say, im not saying will happen. I’m saying these things are possible and to keep an open mind to put yourself In the best position possible if when things unfold you can read the writing on the wall.
Continuity of government is your government’s first priority. We already saw this before Russia invaded Ukraine with the Ukrainian government publicly denying this intelligence, while 6 months later they acknowledged that they knew the intelligence was true, but they did not want to cause panic and have civilians blocking the roads so they could move their military quickly. No doubt some civilians are deceased because of this, so ask yourself - if governments are willing to let people die because of continuity of government, if energy becomes scarce do you think they will care about Bitcoin mining?
The US is extremely rich in resources and shouldn’t have any issues with energy scarcity for a long time. However in a more extreme situation where the US is involved directly or indirectly with conflict and trade routes are controlled by opposing countries, making the US self sufficient in energy then it means the clock is ticking, even if it’s 10 years the clock is still ticking for continuity of government and they likely will not allow energy to be wasted on things they deem unnecessary. Even though In some locations Bitcoin mining has played a critical role in upgrading grid infrastructure and supply with contracts signed to turn off miners when energy is scarce, they will not care and will do what’s best for the government. If things are really bad, the government might even move key manufacturing facilities to off grid locations where miners operate.
Even here in Australia the government released propaganda telling us to be ready for war with China by 2025. If that happens, Australia gets most of its fuel imported from Singapore and last I heard we only have 2 weeks reserve. China could probably force Australia to surrender without firing any military equipment on/at Australian soil. Even though we have enough coal and natural gas to probably last my lifetime, that’s all useless without diesel powered machinery, making us energy scarce.
People talk about how China is going to try to invade Taiwan. None of us know if that will happen, but if it does, even if the US doesn’t get directly involved, both countries will sanction each other and what ever miners you have on pre order or awaiting shipping from China you will not receive. Compass 2.0
History tells us the during and post WW1 and WW2 is extremely inflationary as governments had to print money and low interest rates to fund those wars which indicates even if BTC does drop in purchasing power it still might be one of the best ways to preserve your wealth.
Btc will also be a popular choice of people fleeing their countries. People used to hide gold in their clothing and tried to not get robbed. Now all you have to do is remember your 24 word pass phrase.
And if you are able to keep mining with all the conditions above, chances are the network hashrate will drop significantly, allowing you to mine more btc. Hopefully all global “leaders” will get together, have a few nose beers together and sort everything out peacefully. Just something to keep an eye out for to try and stay one step ahead.