So stripping out the CPI data and looking at JUST the core CPI, airlines are what put us OVER the projected target. Airlines came in at just over 21% rate increase month over month. That is just INSANE. Second was Motor Oil…so key take aways, both are caused by increases in the price per barrel for oil. I hate to say it, while Biden blames it on the Ultra MAGA and Puttin “Which Russia does have some affect”, ultimately if we where still an oil independent country the price per a barrel would be roughly $55 barrel with Russian FUD, which in return leave the fuel prices to decrease and therefore HELP create deflation in certain sectors that have been hurting inflation since he ended the independent oil drilling and usage.
On the plus side while the CPI data came in hotter as expected, it does have a downward projection that has just started, PPI data “tomorrow” and GDP data “June-July” will ultimately confirm these.
Right now in my honest opinion we ARE in a recession and at the very beginning of it. Specific companies have lowered guidance for next quarter and some have even talked about layoffs.
But good news is the market can still go up during a recession if valuations are right for that company or sector. USUALLY you start to see a turn around shortly after that CEO of that company starts to buy back shares of their company…which has been happening all this week.
I myself get scared in the markets during this time but if I feel like that then I know it’s a good time to buy and never sell. Unfortunately I cannot buy anything as I am trying to stay afloat with paying loans and electric on these miners and now that profits are stripped in half, it extremely hard haha.
Hopefully this helps curb some feels of dread