@SandeepKarnati Over the past 6 mos, difficulty has increased by over 128%. In the version of the table that I posted previously, I assumed a 238% increase on a year-over-year basis. Admittedly, this likely will prove low if my theory that the KA3 166 THs rig is likely a KDA “introductory” miner for Bitmain, with higher hash models yet to be announced. So in retrospect, I probably should’ve just rounded to 300% (or higher?) and called it a day.
So let’s stress it a bit. I increased electricity costs. I also assumed a 400% difficulty increase year-over-year, increased downtime to 5%, and assumed an average KDA price of $1.00. Still, I’m getting just over a 1-year ROI, which is quite reasonable.
I get that it’s an oversimplified calculation. E.g, it’s unlikely that difficulty will increase linearly. But without being able to predict the difficulty curve, it’s a reasonable representation absent better info. Also, KDA pricing will be all over the map. Breakeven is very sensitive to price and hold vs sell decisions.
And if I were to play with the calculation a bit more, I’d assume that Bitmain won’t deliver December rigs until March 1st, i.e. start with a KA3 mining perhaps ~35 KDA/day by the time us plebes take delivery and then project 1-year forward.
I’m in the same place that you’re at. I can take the plunge and upgrade my KD5s with two KA3s. Or watch the KD5s go negative returns over the next 2-4 months and essentially exit KDA mining. Unfortunately, neither of us has a crystal ball.
So true, I was thinking the same w.r.t difficulty. It’s not linear but with the way and the pace the mining rigs are being setup currently , the difficulty will be shot up in no time and thank you for the cal with 400 % increase that sounds very reasonable considering the 166TH being available from Dec for large mining groups and as you said we should be lucky to get our hands on one in Dec/Jan and Feb/Mar seems to be a likely delivery if ordered now.
Only If I had the crystal ball, I will be not be buying the bloddy box miner for 5K-6K each ( looking back at it now, it’s exactly 100 times more TH than the original box miner )
Ho well, it feels like cat and mouse , if we don’t jump in now we will loose for scalping prices later if KDA pumps up ( assuming the market reversal ) and if not it’s an another oblivion waiting for us
Yeah I looked at it, for 160T they are offering it for close to 7k for 120 days which is not at all profitable unless the price of KA3 drops dramatically or goes -ve or the price of KDA tanks ( in this case even the 120 days hashrate profit is not fully realised ). Hope I got this right
For those interested . . . below is avg KDA/day per minerstat.com, which I curve fit and projected forward. Unfortunately, they don’t publish raw data. So I simplified by picking the 1st of each month dating back to 4/1/22, which is as far back as they go. I tried a couple of curve fits but a linear fit seemed most reasonable over time.
So anyone considering a KA3 probably wants to consider future yields, electricity costs trends, and their own personal view on probable KDA pricing trends. If you run through the numbers, should KDA trade sideways for a while, it might take years for a KA3 to break even.
Note that for a KA3 rig shipping in mid to late December (fwiw, they were 5 months late with my L7), if Bitmain is only 2 months late delivering, then KDA/day starting point would be ~20/day compared to the ~54/day currently. Then bake in an annual 250% increase in difficulty over the subsequent year and that KA3 would be producing ~5.5-6.0 KDA/day by 2/1/24. Unless KDA is >$2 by then, most people wouldn’t even be able to cover their daily cost of electricity.
Gee wiz dad. Thanks for taking the time and effort to show us the potential risks of buying this miner. This gives a better explanation of why it is priced so low. Much appreciated legend
Look Bitmain is going to take your money mine with your KA3 then when they have ruined the hashrate they will send you your miner. Do not recommend buying.
I received a KD6SE just two weeks before the KA3 was announced. I’m so mad right now since as far as I can see my investment not gonna return
How do you see the situation and the future from a kd6 owner side?
no, the difficulty will skyrocket, you won’t get your miner in December, and mining will not pan out. The L7 I ordered in August didn’t show up until March of the next year, ttfwiw. The price of electricity is continuing to go up, inflation is just getting started. IF KDA is going to go up, EVER, you would be better off to take your money, plus taxes, plus shipping and buy KDA, then sit on it and wait for it to go up.
I considered most of the scenarios from your analysis and they are very informative, thank you for the detailed analysis. The only way KA3 will be profitable is if Bitmain starts delivering
by mid-december or Jan atleast ( which I doubt ) and if no one buys Goldshell miners till that point of time thinking they are not going to ROI, that’s the only scenario where the people/groups who received their KA3 in the first batch will get their ROI in 5 months considering the same price without electricity costs and with a difficulty spike of 125% over that 5 months. Having said that I have ordered my KA3 just to be in the queue for first batch, fingers crossed and hoping it doesn’t become an another KD box saga for me
Did anyone actually bought it? 2 min after the start they were already sold out! I gave up on it after a closer look at the difficulty, but definitely, it is an exciting miner.
If the price of KDA goes back to $10-$20 you can make good money with the miner. If you buy the coin would you make more money if it goes to $10-$20 that is the ??? Remember mining is as risky as investing in the coin.
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Are you implying that I might be a bit . . . older? Well, you’re right . . .
