Ive heard it said that the cost is correlated to the earnings in a year. Are these machines really going to be half of current prices if when we see a bear market?
Short answer - yes. Just look at the prices of Antminer L3+’s. They went from like $100 in the recent bear market to over $1,000 today.
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One of the basic rules of starting or investing in a business is that you should break even within one years time, give or take a month. If it can be achieved within the third quarter then that’s a solid investment for sure. Looking at some of the current prices of ASIC miners, I’d say be careful not to over spend.
Now if you have a solar panels installed that would offset the cost of electricity dramatically. That alone would put you in the positive spectrum of your investment well within the third, possibly second quarter depending on how much you spent on an ASIC. In my area the KWH rate is $0.135 but with an adequate solar system it would be more like $0.05-0.04
Another example is KDA. It blew up and the miner prices went crazy. So cost goes both ways.